In a short period of time, COVID-19 has distracted the lives and livelihoods of millions of people around the globe, and lockdown restrictions have forced the people to confine their life in four walls.

The recent studies conducted in various markets have proven that this has made a drastic change in consumer behavior and poses new challenges to brand managers across the globe, a recent study conducted by Christian Jasper Nicomedes¹ in the Philippines markets clearly shows that with the rapid spread of global pandemic COVID-19, people around the world express panic in various behaviors, this affects the economy of the county, social values, and psychological stress of the people involved,  regardless of the directness of contact with the infected, the study also shows that there is a significant difference in the avoidance behavior between residents,  another interesting study done by Catherine Tucker and Shuyi Yu² in the US market gives the first evidence on the effect of the spread of COVID-19 in the US on retail footfall traffic,  the study shows around 20% decline in the retail footfall and  also the spread of the COVID -19 has led to a nationwide decline in visits to restaurants.

Literature review: 
Consumer Behavior in Response to the Crisis:

The increased transactional complexity associated with the financial crisis made purchasing decisions more risky, therefore consumers prefer to shift to less harmful choices, for that particular reason it is highly advised that businesses adopt a marketing strategy that minimizes the transactional costs. During recession many consumers will be forced to cut back on their spending, but how and by how much they cut back, will differ greatly by brand and category, during recession consumers are accustomed to limited offers and tend to simplify their demands, so that after the crisis it is expected that they will continue to accept simple offers, but with greater utility.  ( Durra Mansoor et.al  2011)

Consumers’ fear of the future strongly impacts their behavior and that this fear is difficult to overcome. The downturn has increased people’s desire for simplicity and has forced consumer’s to question their beliefs and attitudes ( Helen E , et.al 2010)

The crisis has reduced the comfort and quality of life of middle and low income segments, and thus they adapt using strategies like reduce the purchased quantities of products, they buy what they need and only as much as they need, they choose cheaper products within each category, holidays, investments in leisure and clothing are the categories of purchases that will continue to be the most affected by the crisis. Utilities and food are the categories that are expected to grow the most. ( Niculae Sabin Mihai et.al 2014)

The global economic crisis has determined many changes in the consumer behavior and has led the vast majority of consumers to look for new landmarks: they became more economical, more responsible and more demanding (Vinod Sharma, et.al 2013)

Consumers refuse to buy at higher price unless they clearly perceive quality advantage. If they are loyal to some brands, they prefer to wait for a price drop, by promotions or discount coupons.( Lelia Voinea, et.al  2011)

During a crisis more obvious is the fear and uncertainty of the future, the more consumers are seeking to better manage their expenses. They are becoming more rational in terms of purchasing decisions and they are more attentive to the product, to its intrinsic qualities, giving more importance to the emotional aspect of the brand (Deepak Kondawar et.al 2012).

While observing various markets one thing is very prevalent as the cases grew, households began to radically alter their typical spending across a number of major categories. Initially spending increased sharply, particularly in retail, credit card spending and food items. This was followed by a sharp decrease in overall spending. Greater levels of social distancing are associated with drops in spending, particularly in restaurants and retail.

This crisis has resulted in paradigm shift in consumer behavior .From being reluctant to using masks and sanitisers to buying them at any cost ; from loving to shop in-store to going digital ; from enjoying  classroom learning to attending online sessions ; from doing physical meetings to making decisions through videoconferencing and from attending glamorous fashion events to viewing live streaming at digital platforms .This change in behavior may become the ‘ way of life ‘ and the’ new normal’   for consumers  , utilitarian values may influence the buying decision than hedonic for few quarters , another argument is that consumers may indulge in hedonistic purchases which make them feel better in this stressful period ( Retaliatory spending )

In the study done by Tsutomu Watanabe ³ to understand the consumption and prices in Japan market says that the Purchases at supermarkets surged on February 24 when the number of infected people started to increase, reaching a year-on-year rate of increase of 20% at the beginning of March. Shoppers bought daily necessities such as instant cup noodles, rice, and toilet paper. After that, however, stockpiling came to an end, the rate of change decreased and has fallen back to more or less the same level as before the COVID- 19 outbreak when the infection curves started to flattening, this finding correlates with credit card spending data as well, and this panic buying and hoarding behavior we can observe across the markets during the initial phase of infection and continues until the curve flattens.

As per the recent research done by  CSA⁴   in US and EU markets in two waves ( Feb 28^th & March 28^th ) shows that the pandemic has brought a noticeable change in the shopping behavior of Baby boomers, The number of Baby boomers shopping less in-store has been increased by 108%, compared to Feb data, this result can be correlated with the high mortality rate of this pandemic among this age group, the survey also gives some interesting insights, a growing number of consumers are shopping more frequently online, with a 62% increase (34% vs. 21% in February). Similarly, the number of consumers shopping less frequently in-store showed a 63% increase (49% vs. 30%). 

Now let’s look at how different genders are responding to this pandemic, CSA says Seven in 10 (71%) women responded that the virus is impacting where and how they shop, a 115% increase from late February, compared to two-thirds (67%) of men (a 76% increase). Fifty-nine percent of women surveyed said that the virus was impacting how much they spent on products, compared to 56% of men.

I strongly believe COVID-19 has the potential to create more permanent behavior changes in the way people shop, consume media and how they regard the brands they do business with. The real question here, and what’s most interesting and hard to say is what happens when this is all over, will people revert back once they’re able to return to their normal routines? Only time can answer this.

 Some interesting shifts which may happen in different categories are,

1. TV/Print /OTT : The COVID-19  may trigger a massive change in the way movies are released, which could have a lasting effect on how people consume entertainment,also this pandemic has really boosted the content consumption of all OTT platforms, according to Nielsen⁵, staying home can lead to an almost 60% increase in the amount of content people watch, recent BARC⁶ data shows that News on TV has grown (50% to 75%), Movies up by  20% across most markets, kids genre grown by 15%, the time spent on smart phone in week 1 of Covid disruption has increased by 1.5 hrs ( 23.6 to 25 hrs ) and interestingly empirical evidence shows that newspaper hard copies are hard to find in many markets, thanks to COVID -19 !!, this will increase the adoption of e-newspaper/Magazines  in India and will have a serious impact on the ad revenue of print media in the post COVID era. 
   
2. A wider embrace of e/m commerce: The category may become more of a default way to shop for some product categories; once a new habit like that starts, it might not shift, this behavioral shift can even jeopardize the future of offline retail business, a recent Bloomberg study conducted in China⁷ shows a > 20% drop in retail sales for the months of January and February, e-commerce was up by 3%.
   
3. Rise of spiritual/ Yoga apps: All recent study predicts an impending global recession which will be far severe than 2008  also forecasting millions of job cuts across the globe, this may lead to anxiety and other behavioral disorder among the workforce and they will resort to the programs which they perceive can bring some balance  and positivity to their life , this will help to gain the popularity of meditation  and yoga apps, this wave has already been started in India, all spiritual gurus are superactive in social media platforms and mediation / Yoga apps have started download campaigns.
   
4. Food delivery and Grocery apps: It was very interesting to observe that online and offline players are pooling their resources to tackle the logistical chaos and sustain their revenue, major supermarkets like Lulu, Big Bazaar, Spencer’s, and brands like Marico has partnered with Swiggy and Zomato to ensure the delivery of its products, which include the popular Saffola brand of oats and oil, this pandemic has open up a completely new revenue stream for brands like Swiggy and Zomato, this may force the pure grocery platforms like BigBasket, Grofers  etc to come up with more discount offers to lure customers to their platforms , in such a scenario price is going to be the big differentiator as the product differentiation is very blurred in this category  , this strategy will lead to bleed their pockets further , it will be interesting to observe their strategy post COVID -19.
   
5. Role of Kirana stores : When we all braced for the inevitable lockdown the friendly neighborhood kiranawalla has come to the rescue of many, not only are the local Kirana store owners going the extra mile to ensure consumers get their daily essentials, they are also turning out to be more innovative than their digital counterparts, the  role of Kirana may  go high post-COVID -19, as  people can’t forget their good deeds during the time of crisis and this may even give a fresh breath to the ailing sector.
   
6. Popularity of Social apps : A recent study conducted by AppGenie says that people are Spending 20% more time in Apps during the COVID-19 Lockdowns, Nielson study shows that consumers spent approx 25% more time on social apps, given that we’re all locked in our homes, and looking for a means to stay connected with the outside world, that comes as little surprise, but this trend is going to stay at least for a few quarters, even post COVID-19 issues as social distancing will going to stay in society as a norm for a longer period.
   
7. Digital adoption in BFSI sector: Since the start of the Covid-19, consumer demand for digital banking has never been greater and many organizations were delaying their digital transformation efforts, this pandemic has given a much needed push for this endeavor. private sector banks have asked customers to use digital platforms for transactions and many of the top private retail banks have already  been introduced various user friendly digital tools like WhatsApp bot to the basic banking needs and Chatbots for answering queries, even baby boomers will be forced to adopt these platforms to their banking needs and once they get comfortable with these tools the human interface will be of least priority in the banking sector and this adoption will be more prevalent in SEC A1, A2 & B1, the base contributes approx. 60% of the total revenue, this may even help the banks to reduce the overhead cost in the long run. 

 I have given a few interesting consumers behavioral shifts one can observe post Covid -19 and for brand custodians this gives greater responsibility in terms of crafting the communication strategy and the imagery for the brand during and post Covid -19, specific segments of the population are finding themselves in increasingly vulnerable positions, how you respond could be critical to future customer and brand relationships, and it could even damage your public image if not handled well. Recent studies shows that people treat brands with whom they associate as a part of their family and would like to see responsible behavior at the time of a crisis , communication with a tone of empathy ; messages which are to the point with clear  CTAs; whether  the brand is engaging with them to overcome the crisis, eg: the brand can do a series of live  yoga session which will help to reduce the stress/anxiety level ; open up subscription learning platforms for free etc. , amid this lockdown.

As Philip Kotler once said “It’s no longer enough to satisfy your customers. You must delight them” and this is the right time for marketers to go much deeper to unravel what their brand stands for now and what it can mean for the future.

References:

 1)      https://www.researchgate.net/publication/340081049_An_Analysis_on_the_Pani  c_of_Filipinos_During_COVID-19_Pandemic_in_the_Philippines

  2)       The Early Effects of Corona virus-Related Social Distancing Restrictions on Brands – Catherine Tucker and Shuyi Y

      3)       The Responses of Consumption and Prices in Japan to the COVID-19 Crisis and    the Tohoku Earthquake , Tsutomu Watanabe – Columbia business school

4)       https://csa-research.com/More/Featured-Content/COVID-19/Survey-Results

5)      https://www.nielsen.com/us/en/insights/article/2020/staying-put-consumers-forced-indoors-during-crisis-spend-more-time-on-media/

6)      https://www.barcindia.co.in/statistic.aspx

7)      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-16/china-manufacturing-and-retail-contract-for-first-time-on-virus

8) The Global Business Crisis and Consumer Behavior: Kingdom of Bahrain as a Case Study -Durra Mansoor& Akram Jalal , https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/55f8/5c69644c6b13ad414588672138ffdb45c3bf.pdf

9) THE IMPACT OF THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS ON CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR –  Helen E Perriman, Dr Rooma Roshnee &  Ramsaran-Fowdar (https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Rooma_Ramsaran/publication/265564940_THE_IMP
ACT_OF_THE_GLOBAL_FINANCIAL_CRISIS_ON_CONSUMER_BEHAVIOUR_By/links/
555bfbdc08ae8f66f3add04e.pdf

10) THE IMPACT OF THE ECONOMIC CRISIS UPON ROMANIAN CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR- Niculae Sabin Mihai, Paul Marinescu & Sorin Toma , University of Bucharest , https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/6263303.pdf

11) Does Consumer Buying Behavior Change During Economic Crisis?- Vinod Sharma & Jayant Sonwalkar . https://www.um.edu.mt/library/oar/bitstream/123456789/30981/1/Does_consumer_buying
_behavior_change_during_economic_crisis_2013.pdf

12) Analyzing the Main Changes in New Consumer Buying Behavior during Economic Crisis- Lelia Voinea&  Alina Filip- Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies. https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/6612386.pdf

13) GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS & CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR-  Deepak Kondawar and Pravin Jadhav  , New Model Degree College, Hingoli.
https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/8699/
1eb0769169b2c8263cf85467dd59062df73d.pdf